Vietnam's 2026 seafood exports: growth from China, risk concentrated in the US

Vietnam's seafood sector entered the final quarter of 2026 with a solid set of numbers and an uncomfortable concentration of risk.

The growth picture

According to VASEP, citing Vietnam Customs data, exports reached 8 billion USD over the first eight months of 2026, up 11.8 percent year on year. August alone contributed 1.14 billion USD, up 6 percent. VASEP has indicated full-year value could pass 12 billion USD if demand in key markets holds.

Two features stand out in the composition of that growth.

China and Hong Kong are doing the heavy lifting

By the end of August 2026, China and Hong Kong together accounted for 2.03 billion USD, up 33.4 percent year on year and representing roughly a quarter of total export value. No other destination is growing at that rate.

Shrimp remains the anchor, pangasius the momentum

In the first half of 2026, shrimp exports reached 2.3 billion USD, up 13.6 percent, holding at around 40 percent of total seafood export value. Pangasius showed the sharper percentage growth, with the first four months reaching 720 million USD, up 17 percent.

Where the risk sits

The growth is broad. The risk is not. It sits almost entirely in policy outcomes in the US market, and in cost lines outside any exporter's control.

• Antidumping review outcomes for shrimp entering the US were expected in late September 2026, with the result shaping order flow and offer prices
• Section 301 measures remain a live variable for US-bound shipments
• For pangasius, the outcome of the twenty-first administrative review carries direct pricing consequences
• Ocean freight costs rose again on Middle East tensions, lengthening delivery times and compressing margins

What this means in practice

For a Vietnamese processor, the strategic question in late 2026 is not whether to grow, but where growth is being bought at the cost of concentration.

• If your US share is rising while a review outcome is pending, you are carrying policy risk that is not priced into your current order book
• If your China growth is real, the question is whether it rests on one or two counterparties or on a genuinely broadened buyer base
• Rising compliance and traceability requirements now affect which buyers can accept your product at all, regardless of price

For an overseas buyer evaluating Vietnamese supply, the same numbers read differently: capacity is available and growing, but counterparty selection matters more than in a flat market, because growth periods attract new entrants with uneven documentation discipline.

Figures represent records identified within the available dataset and should not be interpreted as the complete global market.

Sources: VASEP dẫn số liệu Hải quan Việt Nam (báo cáo tháng 8/2026); VASEP (báo cáo 6 tháng và 5 tháng đầu năm 2026)